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General Personality Science

Dunning-Kruger Effect

The tendency for people with low competence to overestimate their ability, while experts tend to underestimate theirs. Results from lacking the knowledge to recognize gaps.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect (Dunning & Kruger, 1999) shows an inverted-U relationship between competence and confidence. Beginners are confidently wrong; experts are less confident.

Why? Developing expertise includes learning how much you don't know. When you first learn programming, you don't know enough to recognize what you're missing. A master programmer knows the breadth of what's possible.

This affects career decisions: a junior developer might confidently pivot into a new technology without recognizing the learning curve. An experienced developer knows how much they'd need to learn.

Combats Dunning-Kruger: seek expert feedback, take assessments designed by experts, and remain humble about areas outside your expertise.

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