Scenario Planning Design

Scenario planning is a strategic foresight technique creating multiple, equally plausible narratives of potential futures. Rather than predicting one "most likely" future, scenario planning explores a range of possibilities—from optimistic to pessimistic to wild-card surprises. Each scenario describes how market conditions, technology, regulations, competition, and customer behavior might evolve. Strategies are then stress-tested against these scenarios to identify robust decisions, hidden risks, and opportunities. Key steps: 1) Identify driving forces and uncertainties, 2) Create 3–5 distinct scenarios, 3) Develop detailed narratives for each, 4) Identify implications for strategy, 5) Test decisions and plans.